COVID-19 Cases Are Rising Again Ahead of the Holiday Season

Table of Contents

COVID-19 infections are increasing across the United States just as the holiday season begins and travel activity ramps up. At the same time, influenza cases are surging, creating a challenging mix of respiratory illnesses nationwide.

Earlier this year, the U.S. experienced a late-summer COVID wave driven by the highly contagious XFG variant, also known as “Stratus.” After a quieter fall, case numbers are once again climbing as winter approaches.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), COVID-19 infections are currently growing or likely growing in 31 states, stable in 15 states, and declining in just one state as of December 16.

---

Why COVID-19 Is Increasing Now

The dominant XFG (Stratus) variant continues to account for the majority of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. Like other Omicron subvariants, it spreads very easily.

Holiday gatherings, increased indoor time, and heavy travel create ideal conditions for transmission. Compounding the issue, vaccination rates remain low.

As of December 6:

• Only 15% of U.S. adults

• And 7% of children

have received the updated 2025–2026 COVID-19 vaccine, according to the CDC.

Experts expect COVID-19 infections to continue rising in the coming weeks.

---

Current COVID-19 Activity Levels

Nationally, COVID-19 viral activity in wastewater remains classified as “low,” according to CDC data through December 13. However, 15 states are already reporting moderate to high levels, particularly in the Midwest.

Data from WastewaterSCAN — a national virus monitoring program — shows:

• SARS-CoV-2 levels are moderate nationwide

• Concentrations have increased 21% since November

“Influenza has surged quickly, while COVID is rising more gradually,” said Dr. William Schaffner.

COVID hospitalizations are also beginning to increase, especially among adults aged 65 and older.

---

States Seeing Higher COVID-19 Activity

As of December 18, the following states are reporting moderate or high COVID viral activity in wastewater:

Arizona
Connecticut
Kansas
Kentucky
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Dakota
West Virginia

---

COVID-19 Symptoms to Watch For in 2025

Symptoms associated with the Stratus variant are similar to earlier strains. Common symptoms include:

• Fever or chills

• Sore throat

• Cough

• Fatigue

• Congestion

• Shortness of breath

• Loss of taste or smell

• Headache or muscle aches

• Nausea, vomiting, or diarrhea

Symptoms can range from mild to severe. While older adults and people with weakened immune systems face higher risks, anyone — including young, healthy individuals — can develop serious illness.

---

Testing and Treatment

Because COVID symptoms can closely resemble the flu or a common cold, testing remains essential.

Reliable testing options include:

• PCR tests

• Rapid at-home antigen tests

• Combination 3-in-1 tests (COVID-19, flu A, flu B)

If you test negative but still have symptoms, the FDA recommends repeating rapid tests over 3–5 days.

Antiviral treatments such as Paxlovid can significantly reduce the risk of severe illness when started early.

---

Vaccination Still Matters

The updated 2025–2026 COVID-19 vaccine is available to everyone aged 6 months and older. Experts say it is well-matched to current strains and remains effective at preventing severe illness, hospitalization, and death.

“It’s not too late to get vaccinated,” Schaffner said, especially for older adults and people with underlying conditions.

---

How to Protect Yourself During the Holidays

Health experts recommend several precautions to reduce your risk this winter:

• Get vaccinated for COVID-19 and flu

• Test if you feel sick

• Stay home when ill

• Avoid contact with sick individuals

• Wear a well-fitting mask (N95 or KN95) in crowded indoor spaces

• Wash hands frequently

• Maintain distance when possible

Extra caution is advised when visiting high-risk individuals.

“If you’re seeing an elderly relative or someone with chronic illness, start being careful now and make sure you’re vaccinated,” Schaffner said.

---

Final Takeaway

While COVID-19 levels are not yet as high as past winter surges, infections are rising steadily and expected to increase through the holidays. Staying informed, vaccinated, and cautious can help protect you and those around you during one of the busiest times of the year.